It appears that all the parties overlooked that might happen. Reading the mood of the voters has clearly not been a strong suit for both Labour and National.
Sure, a few weeks out during some of the polls, TPM was behind in some of its key seats. We all know just how wrong the pollsters can be.
The aftermath, is some old school, long held Labour Party dynasty family seats being booted out.
For so long it seemed to be a ‘right of passage’ for anyone Mahuta, and Tirikatene Sullivan. They were stalwarts of long held Labour seats, not recognised so much by the huge winning margins at times, but by the deep rooted family ties to certain seats in NZ.
With the complete route of the Labour Party, the Green Party having a strong showing, by seemingly stealing Labours thunder with the ‘Wealth Tax” policy, and TPM, despite only a small percentage of the Party vote, they have unseated what most thought would have never happened – Maori throwing out Maori. Its quite a change of the guard that we suspect most did not see coming.
Certainly some of the more arrogant members of Labour must be sitting there wondering what might have been. Complacency breeds failure. That ‘saying’ has haunted many in NZ politics.
In certain political circles some of those associated with TPM have told us they are quite confident to take the seats of both Ti Tai Tokerau, and Tāmaki Makaurau… those seats are held currently by just under 500 votes a piece while we await the special votes.
Based on the voter turn out for TPM in terms of the actual party vote, you could easily dismiss such a notion that a further 2 Labour strongholds could change hands. However, its not the Party vote that those unhappy with the MPs seek to change, but its the, in some cases overwhelming, votes for the electorate candidate that has turned the tide.
What this suggests to us, is that the now previous Labour MP encumbants delivered very little that mattered in their respective seats. As Electorate MPs, they ultimately delivered nothing. Communities needing assistance appear to have simply been forgotten while MPs enjoyed the largess of being in Wellington, while constituents suffered at home with the cost of living crisis.
However, all this comes at a cost when one considers what it means after voting day.
The huge swing to TPM, and it is huge, has given rise to the possibility of a large ‘overhang’ in the next Parliament, but that has also handed the right leaning parties, National, Act and NZ First the mandate to govern.
Given the stance, in particular of Act and NZ First on so many racial issues, and treaty issues, its quite the ‘unintended consequence’.
TPM, under the previous stewardship of Turia and Sharples worked well with the Key government, however for now, TPM seem to happy to be an opposition party, making the most of the arrogance and incompetence that was the last Labour government.
Bring on the special votes.